There’s a Strip caucus win for Biden. t.co/kO1TLDHBSa
1 hour 17 min ago.
In ‘08, Culinary endorsed Obama after Clinton won NH but she won caucus. (Obama won delegate battle because his cam… t.co/ScsZrhvL4x
1 hour 19 min ago.
Adelson’s paper tracking the big news, as always. t.co/kFKPXBYQo3
1 hour 27 min ago.
Reminder for real-time happenings. t.co/DgBxQquNid
1 hour 29 min ago.
So Bernie won at the Wynn and Bellagio sites. This is significant. Remember these are Culinary workers, and the Cul… t.co/4Hz4LeBx7B
1 hour 37 min ago.
Still early, but @DecisionDeskHQ is the best. These guys are smart, and this outcome is possible. No one but Bernie… t.co/Ba7bj7q7NP
1 hour 41 min ago.
@NathanWurtzel Usually a few hours. But early voting numbers could change that. Fingers crossed.
2 hours 17 min ago.
These entrance polls look very good for Bernie.
2 hours 19 min ago.
Looks like it is early vote.
2 hours 27 min ago.
In a piece that posted on POLITICO a short time ago, reporters Anna Palmer and John Bresnahan write that during a recent conference call, "Romney pollster Neil Newhouse told participants that he 'was skeptical' about the GOP challenger’s chances in Pennsylvania and Nevada." They also point out that Newhouse's comments "contradicted the assessment Friday by Rich Beeson, Romney’s political adviser, in an interview with POLITICO where he asserted that while Nevada 'has been the toughest nut for us...
We've settled into a pattern now in early voting in Clark County, with the Democrats gaining about 5,000 voters a day. The total is now at a little more than 44,000 voters over the GOP, with six days remaining. Extrapolation gets the total to 70,000-plus by the end of early vorting, which is solid but not impenetrable, and also assumes the GOP doesn't do better in Week 2 or that the Democrats don't step it up even more. The pattern in Clark has been the Democrats do better during the first week...
UPDATED: SOS has updated statewide numbers. Democrats up 10 in early vote, GOP has slight edge in mail. 350,000-plus have voted, 28 percent of all active voters. The Democrats slowed down a bit on Friday in Clark County, extending their lead by 4,000 ballots, the party's smallest daily lead since the second day of early voting. But combining their current early-vote lead -- 37,932 -- with their absentee ballot edge -- 1,904 -- and their lead after the first week in the South is 39,836 voters...
It's deja vu all over again. The Democrats extended their lead in Clark County to about 36,000 voters over the Republicans with another solid day and another day where 30,000-plus voters turned out. It now seems reasonable to assume the lead will be 40,000 or so after one week. With a week to go, that would put the Democrats about halfway to the lead they had in 2008 -- 83,000. I don't think they will get there, but they don't have to. Obama won the state by 12 points (Clark by 19) with that...
The NBC/Marist poll released today shows President Obama up 3 percentage points and Sen. Dean Heller winning by the same margin. If the screen is lifted to include registered voters, the power of the Democratic machine is evident: Obama's lead doubles and Rep. Shelley Berkley catches Heller. Some thoughts: It's a huge sample -- 1,253 registered voters (MOE=+/-2.8 percent) and 1,042 likely voters (MOE=+/-3.0 percent). Lots of cell phone users, too, which is a good sign. Seventy-one percent of...
Thursday potpourri: News from CD3 on an ad buy and a debate, Adelson $ to Romney, Kaine blasts Adelson, Sandoval loves Romney, Berkley loves Obama and a new Angle
A SEPTET OF THURSDAY NUGGETS: Nugget No. 1 -- The American Action Network is going up with a new ad to protect Rep. Joe Heck in CD3, where he has a lead in nearly every poll but could be nervous about Democratic turnout. The spot is in English and Spanish, and is embedded below. (Heck also is responding to Oceguera's attempt to portray the congressman as weak on rape victims with a dramatic ad from his wife, who was a victim of domestic violence. Will post spot when I can.) Nugget No. 2 -- I...
UPDATED: The latest statewide numbers are in. Bottom line: Democrats have a 9-point lead, almost 23,000 in raw votes. The state site is still not updating with Washoe mail ballots, where Republicans have had an advantage. Rural numbers are coming in strongly, with nearly a 2-to-1 advantage for GOP (19,975-11,211). It will be interesting to see if high early voting in rural areas, especially Douglas County, means there will be higher-than-usual cow country turnout or fewer rural voters on...
Mitt Romney campaigned in Nevada today for the second consecutive day. The question is: Why? Any reasonable analysis of the early voting numbers so far shows that the Democratic machine is crushing the Republicans’ Rube Goldberg contraption. In Clark County, the Democrats have a 25,000-voter lead. Even in Washoe County, the Democrats are holding their own. Why can’t Mitt get the message? As Boz Scaggs once crooned: Why pretend? This is the end. But is it over here in Nevada? The answer: Not...
Some quick thoughts on the new Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling surveys for Nevada released today (caveat: both are robopollers and I am still a bit of a robophobe): Rasmussen: 50-48, Obama The usually GOP-skewed pollster had a better sample than usual, with 40-35, Democratic edge. His previous surveys here have had GOP advantages, not reflecting registration (D+7) or likley turnout. This one is much closer to reality, inlcuding a reasonable number of minority respondents (32 percent). But...
UPDATED AT 9:45 AM: The SOS now has the following state numbers after a morning tally (not all numbers in for Day 4): 210,484 have voted by mail or early voting. 48 percent are Democrats and 35.5 percent are Republicans. The raw vote lead is about 21,000 votes. So if 90 percent of partisans are voting for each guy and let's say Romney is winning indies by 10 points (which would be big), he would still be behind by more than 13,000 votes. After four days of early/mail voting, the Democrats have...