UPDATE NO. 2 -- So I have data that quantifies how the GOP did so well in early voting Monday. Take a look at this chart:
President Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 6 points in Nevada and Sen. Dean Heller has a 1-point lead over Rep. Shelley Berkley, according to a new poll taken over the weekend.
It occurred to me while talking to a reporter from CBS News about the election that Nevada is potentially anomalous in two races of national import:
1. How in the world in a state with arguably the worst economy in the country is the president even close, much less ahead? Mitt Roimney should be winning by double digits in a state where the unemployment rate is 50 percent higher than the national average and the housing boom turned into a housing implosion? Answer: The Democratic machine and the Hispanic vote
That's how you answered the site poll.
It wasn't close: 57 percent of you said Gov. Brian Sandoval will run for the U.S. Senate in 2016 -- either against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, or someone else if Reid retires. More than 400 people participated. Very sceintific.
A new poll is up about the president's margin in Clark County.
Turnout slowed on Sunday in Clark County, with only about 24,000 people going to the polls and the Democrats adding fewer voters (3,000) to their lead than any day so far.
In a piece that posted on POLITICO a short time ago, reporters Anna Palmer and John Bresnahan write that during a recent conference call, "Romney pollster Neil Newhouse told participants that he 'was skeptical' about the GOP challenger’s chances in Pennsylvania and Nevada."
We've settled into a pattern now in early voting in Clark County, with the Democrats gaining about 5,000 voters a day.
The total is now at a little more than 44,000 voters over the GOP, with six days remaining. Extrapolation gets the total to 70,000-plus by the end of early vorting, which is solid but not impenetrable, and also assumes the GOP doesn't do better in Week 2 or that the Democrats don't step it up even more.
UPDATED: SOS has updated statewide numbers. Democrats up 10 in early vote, GOP has slight edge in mail. 350,000-plus have voted, 28 percent of all active voters.
The Democrats slowed down a bit on Friday in Clark County, extending their lead by 4,000 ballots, the party's smallest daily lead since the second day of early voting.
It's deja vu all over again.
The Democrats extended their lead in Clark County to about 36,000 voters over the Republicans with another solid day and another day where 30,000-plus voters turned out. It now seems reasonable to assume the lead will be 40,000 or so after one week.
The NBC/Marist poll released today shows President Obama up 3 percentage points and Sen. Dean Heller winning by the same margin.
If the screen is lifted to include registered voters, the power of the Democratic machine is evident: Obama's lead doubles and Rep. Shelley Berkley catches Heller.
It's a huge sample -- 1,253 registered voters (MOE=+/-2.8 percent) and 1,042 likely voters (MOE=+/-3.0 percent). Lots of cell phone users, too, which is a good sign.