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UPDATED: Democrats have a 1,700-vote lead in absentee ballots returned, so the urban county vote lead is above 20,000 (still don't have Washoe mail count.) Democrats turned out 5,000 more voters in Clark County than the Republicans on Day 3 and the count was about even in Washoe County. Clark saw another robust day of voting as 30,000 people turned out, bringing the three-day total to just under 90,000 voters -- that's more than 20,000 more than had turned out by this time in 2008. The numbers...
So what do we know after two days of early voting? Not a lot -- but something. We know turnout was huge during that first weekend -- almost 60,000 voters turned out, 15,000 more than in '08 -- and we know that the second week is usually much bigger than the first (it was 50 percent greater in '08). We know the Democrats are getting out their voters -- better than four years ago, in fact. We know the Republicans are turning out much better than in '08 (a very low bar because John McCain had...
The numbers: D             Others            R 31,401    9,683         18,106 That's 53-31. In 2008, after two days, the total raw vote lead was 16,000, and it was 60-24. So no wave, but still a substantial Democratic lead, and 7 points above registration. Democrats have turned out well above 2008 (27,000 vs. 31,000) but GOP has done even better relative to four years ago (11,000 vs. 18,000), albeit still well behind. Democrats had an 83,000 raw vote lead at the end of two weeks of early voting...
I have been writing all season how much Nevada matters in the presidential race. We have been one of a handful of battleground states all year long, and we remain a toss-up in most assessments. (I think the state leans to Obama, but that's me.) I decided to have some fun, though, with the great site 270 to win. I found two ways that Nevada really could matter. Take a look at these scenarios: 1. The first hypothetical involves President Obama winning Ohio but losing Florida, Colorado and most...
As the Democrats sound buoyant with their wide margin and the Republicans sound like Custer crowing after Little Big Horn, some more thoughts on Day One of early voting in Clark County: ---Republicans -- at least some -- are claiming the Democratic machine did not work as well in Clark because the margin is only a landslide (55-29) after the first day and not a super-landslide (60-23) as it was in '08. Well, ok. But the Democrats still turned out MORE voters than in '08 -- 3,000 more. Their...
UPDATE: Democrats also decisively defeated Republicans in first round of absentee ballots, usually a GOP strength, posted in Clark County: 8,976-7,448, or 46-38. So raw number in Clark so far: Dems, 27,364-17,036. That's 52-32, or 5 points above the registration edge. So: After one day -- remember it's only one day! -- using absentees and early votes in Clark and early votes in Washoe (don't have absentees yet), the Democrats have an 11,000-vote lead statewide. Let's see where we go from here....
Welcome to The Weekly Report, where you find exclusive commentary and analysis. As always, I welcome feedback. Please tell me what you want and don’t want. This week: 1.     My column: What to watch for in early voting 2.     By the numbers: Absentees and inactives 3.     State of the Races 4. Nuggets on the labor machine, the Hispanic turnout, Mellman’s polling, Wynn’s employee-persuading and a Grover incursion   MY COLUMN: THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF EARLY VOTING     Two years ago during early...

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