Poll: Hutchison, Miller have sizable leads, Marshall-Cegavske closer

Republican lieutenant governor hopeful Mark Hutchison and Democratic attorney general candidate Ross Miller have double-digit leads, according to a new poll.

The survey also indicated that Treasurer Kate Marshall is ahead of state Sen. Barbara Cegavske, but many voters remain undecided. Oh, and this is exclusive: Gov. Brian Sandoval is going to win.

The survey, conducted for a major gaming company 10 days ago by nationally known Global Strategy Group, had a large sample (804 statewide, MOE=3.5 percent) and a GOP-favorable turnout model, turning a 5 point Democratic registration edge into a 1 percent Republican turnout edge. That edge may be even larger considering the early voting numbers, but it probably won't be much larger. It could, however, tilt the SOS race away from the Democrats and make the AG's race closer.

I agreed to keep the identity of the pollster's client private, but only on the condition I was allowed to see the entire instrument, which looks solid and comports with other credible data I know about.

The numbers:

LG: Hutchison, 48 percent; Lucy Flores, 37 percent. This looks very bad for the Democrats. She has little money, so hard to turn this around.

AG: Miller, 41 percent; Adam Laxalt, 30 percent. It's clear that Laxalt's negatives are hurting him if he is still at 30 percent, and that Miller, unlikeFlores or Marshall, is getting crossover votes. Laxalt's only hope: Still 29 percent undecided or going to third-party candidate, so heavily GOP turnout could make it competitive.

SOS: Marshall, 40 percent; Cegasvke, 34 percent. Outside the margin of error, but lots of undecided.

Finally, the one you have been waiting for: Sandoval, 68 percent; Bob Goodman, 24 percent. Sandoval is going to come close to beating Kenny Guinn's modern record of 72 percent.

Could the poll be wrong? Of course. Any poll could be. But the model looks solid for a midterm.

It would appear the LG's race is over, the AG's race only becomes competitive if the rural percentage of the vote is higher than ever and Democrats make little recovery in Clark County, and the SOS race slightly favors Marshall but not by much.