Day 14, Friday, June 10: Huge day on the final day, as usual: Nearly 10,000 folks voted in Clark County. Final number of 76,500 far above last cycle's 61,000. But even with mail, the total is 90,192. That's only 10 percent.
Partisan totals are higher:
Democrats: 45,868, or 11.8 percent
Republicans: 36,125, or 13.2 percent
Bottom line: The CD4 turnout still looks to be about 25,000 or so when all is said and done, unless Election Day turnout is unusually high. And don't forget a few hundred rural votes could be important if it's close. 30 percent wins for sure, may take less than that. So 7,000 votes or so to become a nominee and almost-certain House member? That is something.
Those same numbers hold true for CD3. Can Roberson make up enough ground to overtake Tarkanian? Could a miracle occur and Fiore sneaks in above both of them? (Democrats are saying their prayers.) Only 7,000 votes needed here, too, perhaps.
The legislative primaries still seem to favor the incumbents with ground games because turnout will not get much above 20 percent. Unless the tax increase is toxic enough to overcome even bad candidates and bad campaigns. Nelson is in big trouble, which means Trowbridge is, too. As Seaman goes, so goes The Real Water Caucus?
The final numbers:
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
17658
13.7%
15744
11.8%
CD4
18065
14.2%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
4227
17.9%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
1875
13.3%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
1873
13.9%
5
Baca-Ham
1430
13.9%
9
Gardner-Orrock
1134
11.3%
13
Anderson-Sanson
1813
19.1%
19
Edwards-Foust
1771
14.6%
21
Armstrong-Jones
1415
14.0%
22
Pickard-Bunce
2304
15.0%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
1629
13.3%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
1171
10.3%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
2858
20.3%
Commission
MK-Ross
8199
14.5%
GOP
%
DEM
%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
36125
13.2%
45868
11.8%
90192
10.1%
Day 13, Thursday, June 9: Biggest day yet Thursday -- 6.705 people voted. Total including mail with one day left: 79,670 or 9 percent
Democrats: 40,256, or 10.4 percent
Republicans: 32,118, or 11.8 percent.
Going to be a stretch for either party to get to 20 percent, but it could be close.
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
15744
12.2%
13917
10.4%
CD4
15789
12.4%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
3813
16.2%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
1669
11.8%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
1609
12.0%
5
Baca-Ham
1245
12.1%
9
Gardner-Orrock
1015
10.1%
13
Anderson-Sanson
1566
16.5%
19
Edwards-Foust
1647
13.5%
21
Armstrong-Jones
1248
12.3%
22
Pickard-Bunce
2013
13.1%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
1406
11.5%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
1039
9.1%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
2646
18.8%
Commission
MK-Ross
7190
12.7%
GOP
%
DEM
%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
32118
11.8%
40256
10.4%
79670
9.0%
Day 12, Wednesday, June 8: Turnout dropped off Wednesday -- 5,758 voted. So far in Clark County, turnout is at 59,896, which is higher than the 14 days of early voting in 2012 and close to the 61,000 of 2014. So it will be higher than both of the last cycle. Are people Peter Finch voters or are the incumbents turning out moderates?
It's still low, but: Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Total with mail: 72,335, or 8.1 percent
Democrats: 36,392, 9.4 percent
Republicans: 29,258, 10.7 percent
Amazing how similar the numbers are in those two competitive congressional primaries (sorry, Jesse, yours ain't). A little more than 14,000 have cast votes in those two contests, meaning, as I long suspected, 10,000 votes should be more than enough to win because about 25,000 will turn out in both races, maybe slightly more in CD3. And if it only takes 30 percent to win those primaries, which is possible, it may only take 7,500 votes. That's amazing.
I am really wondering at this point how much the tax toxicity and the horrible transgender bathroom mailers might be cutting these GOP legislative incumbents. Yes, each district has its own dynamics, but if Erv nelson loses, my guess is Glenn Trowbridge does, too (he's nested there, and turnout is very high). And if both of those lose, others are going down, too.
Bottom line: When those early/mail votes post early on Election Night, we will know a lot about the wave or lack thereof. If a lot of The Real Water Caucus folks win, most will lose in November. But that would also mean some quality incumbents have fallen and that Gov. Brian Sandoval, money and ground games couldn't save them from the fringe that votes in these low-turnout affairs.
I repeat this, too: Only about 100-150 people are voting per day in those districts. Scary.
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
14392
11.2%
12659
9.5%
CD4
14286
11.2%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
3510
14.9%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
1507
10.7%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
1408
10.5%
5
Baca-Ham
1092
10.6%
9
Gardner-Orrock
923
9.2%
13
Anderson-Sanson
1437
10.1%
19
Edwards-Foust
1572
12.9%
21
Armstrong-Jones
1130
11.1%
22
Pickard-Bunce
1824
11.8%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
1228
10.0%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
945
8.3%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
2494
17.7%
Commission
MK-Ross
6540
11.6%
GOP
%
DEM
%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
29258
10.7%
36392
9.4%
72335
8.1%
Day 11, Tuesday, June 7: Biggest day yet -- 6,170 people voted in Clark County. Totals: 54,136 early and 11,787 mail, or 65,923. That's 7.4 percent.
Democrats: 33,052, or 8.5 percent
Republicans: 26,744, or 9.8 percent
If numbers continue to ramp up in the last three days, both parties will be well over 10 percent for early/mail voting. Election Day turnout will be anywhere from 5 percent to 10 percent if history holds. So it's still going to be low.
Turnout in the key congressional primaries -- GOP in CD3 and Dems in CD3 -- is now up above 10 percent. The higher it gets in CD3, the better for Michael Roberson, I'd say. Can they get it to 25 percent by the end of the day Tuesday? In CD4, the Culinary and labor folks appear to be getting voters out for Ruben Kihuen, but if that turnout gets much above 20 percent, does that hurt him? Field matters, especially in primaries.
It seems clear that a quarter of voters will turn out in the Seaman-Nelson race, which could help Nelson overcome what insiders think is a significant Seaman edge. But I don't know a lot of Establishment Rs who feel good about that one.
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
13361
10.4%
11662
8.7%
CD4
12791
10.0%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
3242
13.7%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
1369
9.7%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
1232
9.2%
5
Baca-Ham
984
9.6%
9
Gardner-Orrock
850
8.5%
13
Anderson-Sanson
1319
9.3%
19
Edwards-Foust
1277
10.5%
21
Armstrong-Jones
1054
10.4%
22
Pickard-Bunce
1726
11.2%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
1095
8.9%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
871
7.7%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
2367
16.8%
Commission
MK-Ross
5770
10.2%
GOP
%
DEM
%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
26744
9.8%
33052
8.5%
65923
7.4%
Day 10, Monday, June 6: 5,593 voted in Clark County on Monday. Add in mail ballots and total is now 58,727 -- 10,762 are mail. Total is 6.6 percent, with Republicans (8.7 percent) and Democrats (7.6 percent) well above that number.
Raw numbers still above 2014 and 2012, although it seems unlikely GOP will reach 15 percent turnout (early/mail) of last cycle despite interest in those primaries. Democrats only had 10 percent last cycle and will surmount that; in 2012, Republicans had 14 percent and Democrats had 11 percent. Remember, too: If past is prologue, GOP turnout will be three or four points higher than Democrats on Election Day.
For those hoping that Establishment GOP types will not be wiped out -- and there is much fretting out there -- one sign of hope: There are a large nuber of absentee ballots in some of the race, which sophisticated and well-funded campaigns can generate. Could they save Michael Roberson and Erv Nelson and some of those Assembly tax-supporters? All of those camps are very, very worried by this point, I'd guess.
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
12141
9.4%
10579
7.9%
CD4
11114
8.7%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
2858
12.1%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
1292
9.1%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
1096
8.1%
5
Baca-Ham
911
8.9%
9
Gardner-Orrock
783
7.8%
13
Anderson-Sanson
1184
8.3%
19
Edwards-Foust
905
7.4%
21
Armstrong-Jones
963
9.5%
22
Pickard-Bunce
1630
10.6%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
1018
8.3%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
729
6.4%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
2065
14.6%
Commission
MK-Ross
4851
8.6%
GOP
%
DEM
%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
23804
8.7%
29494
7.6%
58727
6.6%
Day 9, Sunday, June 5: 4,872 voted Sunday, bringing the early/mail total to 52,623. That's just under 6 percent of all voters.
Context: In 2014, about 76,500 turned out by mail and for early voting, after all was said and done, or about 10 percent. Total turnout after Election Day was just under 16 percent. Democrats were 14 percent and GOP was 25 percent. In 2012, the numbers were not much different.
If you look at those two competitive congressional primaries (CD3 for Repubs and CD4 for Dems), you can see in the neighborhood of 10,000 people have voted. There seems no reason to believe that the eventual totals will be more than 25,000, if that. Only about 1,100 voters in those primaries are casting ballots every day, so it's reasonable to assume 16,000 or 17,000 will have voted by the end of early voting Friday (upticks possible as the week goes on), so 25,000 may be high.
It probably will take under 10,000 votes to win those nominations. And for the legislative races, just a few hundred votes. That's it.
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
10821
8.4%
9615
7.2%
CD4
9870
7.7%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
2474
10.5%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
1230
8.7%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
980
7.3%
5
Baca-Ham
838
8.1%
9
Gardner-Orrock
736
7.4%
13
Anderson-Sanson
1040
11.0%
19
Edwards-Foust
800
6.6%
21
Armstrong-Jones
907
8.9%
22
Pickard-Bunce
1305
8.5%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
933
7.6%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
624
5.5%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
1761
12.5%
Commission
MK-Ross
4279
7.6%
GOP
%
DEM
%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
21133
7.7%
26576
6.8%
52623
5.9%
Day 8, Saturday, June 4: Second biggest day of the period and largest since the first day on Saturday: 5,348 voted. Totals: 37,500 have voted early at the polls, 10,251 by mail. That's 47,751, or 5.4 percent.
Democrats: 24,164, 6.2 percent
Republicans: 19,119, 7 percent
Not much new in the subdivisions. Look at it this way: About 1,000 people a day are voting in the congressional primaries and about 100 (!) a day are voting on average in those Assembly primaries. The Seaman-Nelson race has about 250 a day.
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
9596
7.4%
8504
6.4%
CD4
7945
6.2%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
2277
9.7%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
1089
7.7%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
906
6.7%
5
Baca-Ham
793
7.7%
9
Gardner-Orrock
695
6.9%
13
Anderson-Sanson
872
9.2%
19
Edwards-Foust
738
6.1%
21
Armstrong-Jones
877
8.6%
22
Pickard-Bunce
1062
6.9%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
858
7.0%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
514
4.5%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
1602
11.4%
Commission
MK-Ross
3925
7.0%
GOP
%
DEM
%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
19119
7.0%
24164
6.2%
47751
5.4%
Day 7, Friday, June 3: One week in the books, and steady as she goes. 4,142 people voted in Clark County on Friday, bringing the week's total to 32,152. That's about 25 percent more than voted in the first week two and four years ago. So there is more interest, mostly because of those competitive congressional primaries and some intense GOP legislative contests. Early voting in the second week traditionally increases significantly -- 37,000 voted early in Week 2 last cycle and 31,000 in 2012 -- so the chances of getting close to 20 percent, if historical trends hold, are good.
The total including mail ballots is 41,672, or just under 5 percent of all registared voters in Clark County. Republicans are above 6 percent, thanks to all of those competitive contests, while Democrats are just under 5.5 percent. But the number of votes needed to win any of these races will be very, very low.
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
8489
6.6%
7490
5.6%
CD4
7945
6.2%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
1838
7.8%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
929
6.6%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
810
6.0%
5
Baca-Ham
689
6.7%
9
Gardner-Orrock
614
6.1%
13
Anderson-Sanson
694
7.3%
19
Edwards-Foust
669
5.5%
21
Armstrong-Jones
756
7.5%
22
Pickard-Bunce
978
6.3%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
748
6.1%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
438
3.8%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
1268
9.0%
Commission
MK-Ross
3460
6.1%
GOP
%
DEM
%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
16659
6.1%
21064
5.4%
41672
4.7%
Day 6, Thursday, June 2: Four thousand people voted in Clark County on Thursday, bringing the total early voted to 28,000. Yes, still well ahead of two and four years ago, mostly generated by high GOP turnout in those primaries, especially CD3, which is nearly two percentage points above the overall turnout. I can extrapolate better after one full week, but it appears now that the turnout will be at 20 percent-plus, higher in key races.
So I still think it won't take much more than 10,000 votes -- if that -- to win one of those key congressional primaries.
Keep an eye on the SD6 primary between Erv Nelson and Victoria Seman. Not only has it become exceedingly ugly, with sick children and private Mormon elder conversations now at issue (don't ask): The turnout there is nearly 3 percentage points above the overall turnout, which means either Nelson is doing something right (lots of absentees, which could be his well-funded campaign) or that Seaman has energized the anti-tax base. Remember, even though it's relatively high, it's still....under 6 percent!
Those Assembly districts remain high, too, as you can see below. I am puzzled by the much higher turnout in Glenn Trowbridge's district (UPDATE: Astute observer points out Trowbridge district inside SD6. Now it makes sense.) and the amazingly low turnout in Brent Jones' district.
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
7446
5.8%
6601
4.9%
CD4
6941
5.4%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
1602
6.8%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
671
4.7%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
707
5.3%
5
Baca-Ham
587
5.7%
9
Gardner-Orrock
539
5.4%
13
Anderson-Sanson
595
6.3%
19
Edwards-Foust
593
4.9%
21
Armstrong-Jones
648
6.4%
22
Pickard-Bunce
894
5.8%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
643
5.3%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
379
3.3%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
1127
8.0%
Commission
MK-Ross
3042
5.4%
GOP
%
DEM
%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
14601
5.3%
18537
4.8%
36631
4.1%
Day 5, Wednesday, June 1: About 4,700 people voted early on Wednesday in Clark County, bringing the total to 24,000 -- or a little under what the totals were for seven days in 2014 and 2012. 7,600 have voted absentee, so the total is now 31,600, or 3.6 percent of the total registered electorate. Republicans (4.6 percent) are still outpacing Democrats (4.1 percent).
Turnout in key primaries remains well above the average, as you can see below. Ordinarily, I'd say that means incumbents or perceived incumbents (Michael Roberson) may have an advantage. But this year on the GOP side, with so many Republicans coming out to vote their spleens (hello, Donald J. Trump), the higher turnout may be cause for worry.
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
6494
5.0%
5718
4.3%
CD4
6028
4.7%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
1366
5.8%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
610
4.3%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
584
4.3%
5
Baca-Ham
485
4.7%
9
Gardner-Orrock
451
4.5%
13
Anderson-Sanson
471
5.0%
19
Edwards-Foust
502
4.1%
21
Armstrong-Jones
588
5.8%
22
Pickard-Bunce
816
5.3%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
568
4.6%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
320
2.8%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
981
7.0%
Commission
MK-Ross
2654
4.7%
GOP
%
DEM
%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
12561
4.6%
16034
4.1%
31600
3.6%
Day 4, Tuesday, May 31: About 4,900 people voted early on Tuesday in Clark County, bringing the total to just under 19,300. That's well ahead of the pace of 2014 and 2012, years in which more than 24,500 voted in the first week. Those totals could be surpassed Wednesday. The total turnout, including the nearly 5,800 mail ballots cast, is still just 2.8 percent, although both parties, as you can see below, are higher -- 3.6 percent for Republicans and 3.3 percent for Democrats.
Tunrout in those three competitive congressional primaries continues to run slightly above the overall turnout percentages, but not by a huge amount. The highest turnouts are in that primary for Mark Lipparelli's state Senate seat and a few of the GOP Assembly primaries, too. The turnout in the bids by Glenn Trowbridge and Derek Armstrong to hold their seats after voting for taxes is relatively high, which is either a sign they are turning out their voters or their constituents are really mad at them. Turnout in Brent Jones' race is very low, which could be a good sign for him.
I am struck by how few votes it will take to win one of these legislative primaries, just a few hundred in some cases. Scary.
Four days of data is almost a third of the early data, so we may be seeing a trend that could push overall turnout above 20 percent. That could help some of these moderate Republicans, but I'd like more data (and some exit polls) to reach any definitive conlcusions.
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
5046
3.9%
4541
3.4%
CD4
4790
3.8%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
1023
4.3%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
434
3.1%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
427
3.2%
5
Baca-Ham
369
3.6%
9
Gardner-Orrock
364
3.6%
13
Anderson-Sanson
336
3.5%
19
Edwards-Foust
411
3.4%
21
Armstrong-Jones
467
4.6%
22
Pickard-Bunce
679
4.4%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
460
3.8%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
267
2.3%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
751
5.3%
Commission
MK-Ross
2038
3.6%
GOP
%
DEM
%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
9791
3.6%
12891
3.3%
25075
2.8%
Day 3, Monday, May 30: Just under 4,500 people voted in Clark County, so about 500 more than on Sunday. The total is about 2.5 percent for both parties.
I have created a spreadsheet to make this easier to digest every day. Both parties are turning out at about the same rate. CD4 has highest turnout of the competitive congressional primaries, at 2.8 percent, but only slightly higher than that CD3 race on both sides.
The Seaman-Nelson trunout is significantly higher than the overall turnout for both parties. So are several of those comeptitive GOP Assembly primaries, especially Glenn Trowbridge's effort to hang on and Derek Armstrong's.
GOP VOTED
%
DEM VOTED
%
CD3
3538
2.7%
3285
2.5%
CD4
3565
2.8%
State Senate
6
Nelson-Seaman
802
3.4%
Assembly
2
Hambrick-Hurst
293
2.1%
4
McArthur-Rezendes
303
2.3%
5
Baca-Ham
271
2.6%
9
Gardner-Orrock
300
3.0%
13
Anderson-Sanson
211
2.2%
19
Edwards-Foust
325
2.7%
21
Armstrong-Jones
373
3.7%
22
Pickard-Bunce
500
3.2%
29
Silberkraus-Groves
365
3.0%
35
Jones-Blanchard-TJones
184
1.6%
37
Trowbridge-Marchant
596
4.2%
Commission
MK-Ross
1469
2.6%
TOTAL VOTED
%
OVERALL
7077
2.6%
9700
2.5%
18571
2.1%
Day 2, Sunday, May 29:
Significant dropoff on Sunday as just under 4,000 people voted in Clark County -- that's 2,000 fewer than Saturday. FIXED TO ADD MAIL TO THESE NUMBERS: Total turnout is now 9,930, or a little more than 1 percent. With mail (nothing new on Sunday), 14,113 -- that's 1.6 percent. Breakdown: 7,434 Democrats (1.9 percent turnout), 5,286 Republicans (1.9 percent turnout).
By this time in 2014, only 6,500 had voted (the second day pace -- 2,500 then -- also is well ahead of last cycle). In 2012, 7,000 had voted.
So people are more interested in this election than I thought -- at least so far. Again, only one-seventh of early voting/mail data is in. (Mail is same because no mail on Sunday.)
Some key numbers -- these are combined EV/mail:
►CD3: 2,564 Democrats (1.9 percent) and 2,741 Republicans (2 percent) have voted. So both about at overall turnout.
►CD4: On the Democratic side in Clark County, 2,603 have voted. That's 2 percent.
►Seaman-Nelson: 549 have voted, or 2.3 percent, so someone's getting voters out there.
►Assembly: Still not a lot of votes to go on in those key GOP primaries. Most have under 200 votes cast. A small sampling of the contested districts show elevated turnout levels in key races -- 2 percent in Gardner-Orrock and 2.4 percent in Silberkraus-Groves. Higher it gets, I'd guess, better for incumbents. But so few votes, such an unconventional year....
►Kirkpatrick-Ross: 1,062 Democrats have voted. That's 1.9 percent, also at the overall turnout.
So interest is higher than usual, and interest in those competitive districts is fueling it. Once again, my caveat: Two days does not a trend make.
--------
Early voting in Clark County, where the key congressional and legislative races are occurring, was 50 percent greater than last year’s first day and a record, but still gruesomely low.
Just under 6,000 voted in Southern Nevada on the first of 14 days of early voting -- the pre-Election Day ballots cast traditionally make up at least half of the total vote, and with mail, make up almost two-thirds. About 4,000 voted on the first day the last two cycles. There are 890,000 registered voters in Clark, so a little more than half a percent have turned out so far. With mail ballots – 4,100 returned so far – 10,000 have voted in Clark, or just above 1 percent.
The Washoe numbers are similarly low – just under 2,000 turned out, also under 1 percent. But I am going to concentrate on Clark on this blog – no statewide races this cycle to talk about in the primary (Joe will beat Sharron) -- which will update every day.
Here are some thoughts on the first day of early voting in Clark (totals for the last two cycles are below):
►I don’t extrapolate a lot from one day, although last cycle’s first-day general election numbers were so jarring that I was able to predict the GOP wave 17 days before Election Day. Primaries are harder. Turnout was 16 percent overall in 2012 and 2014, with 112,000 and 123,000 votes cast, respectively. So you can see how small this sample is.
►CD4: The Clark part of the district has 127,000 Democratic voters, which is 91 percent of the total. If there is 20 percent turnout, or 54,000 voters, it may take under 15,000 votes to win a three-and-a-half person race (Moose Arberry is the half). On Day One, 1,205 Democrats turned out and 714 mail ballots have been returned so far. So that’s 1.5 percent, or about 50 percent more than the overall turnout percentage the first day.
►CD3: The Democratic side has 133,500 voters; the GOP side has 129,000 voters. Similar numbers apply here as in the CD4 race. A very small number of votes will be required to become a congressional nominee. On Day One, almost identical numbers of Democrats (1,165) and Republicans (1,167) turned out. Five hundred sixty Democratic absentees and 717 GOP absentees have been returned. That’s 1.3 percent and 1.5 percent, so I see a slight spike, especially in the Roberson-Tark race.
►State Senate: I’ll keep an eye on the Victoria Seaman-Erv Nelson turnout in District Six, which has 23,500 Republican voters. It may take under 2,500 votes to win. I would guess higher turnout helps Nelson. On Day One, 184 Republicans voted and 231 mail ballots have been returned. So with that total, about 1.8 percent have voted, so you can see the percentage compared to the overall turnout.
►Assembly: I will look for spikes in any of the districts where incumbents or challengers are being opposed by members of The Real Water caucus, the Brent Jones Gang. Not much to see yet. So few votes will be cast in these races. A couple of samples: David-Gardner-Diana Orrock -- 42 voted, 81 absentees. That’s 1.2 percent. Stephen Silberkraus-Amy Groves – 136 and 74, or 1.7 percent. We’ll know more in all of these after a week or so, I’d say.
►CCC: In District B, where the Marilyn Kirkpatrick-Steve Ross race is occurring, there are 56,000 Democrats. On Day One, 516 voted and 270 mail ballots are in. So, that’s 1.4 percent, a bit of a spike compared to overall.
Day 14, Friday, June 10: Huge day on the final day, as usual: Nearly 10,000 folks voted in Clark County. Final number of 76,500 far above last cycle's 61,000. But even with mail, the total is 90,192. That's only 10 percent.
Partisan totals are higher:
Democrats: 45,868, or 11.8 percent
Republicans: 36,125, or 13.2 percent
Bottom line: The CD4 turnout still looks to be about 25,000 or so when all is said and done, unless Election Day turnout is unusually high. And don't forget a few hundred rural votes could be important if it's close. 30 percent wins for sure, may take less than that. So 7,000 votes or so to become a nominee and almost-certain House member? That is something.
Those same numbers hold true for CD3. Can Roberson make up enough ground to overtake Tarkanian? Could a miracle occur and Fiore sneaks in above both of them? (Democrats are saying their prayers.) Only 7,000 votes needed here, too, perhaps.
The legislative primaries still seem to favor the incumbents with ground games because turnout will not get much above 20 percent. Unless the tax increase is toxic enough to overcome even bad candidates and bad campaigns. Nelson is in big trouble, which means Trowbridge is, too. As Seaman goes, so goes The Real Water Caucus?
The final numbers:
Day 13, Thursday, June 9: Biggest day yet Thursday -- 6.705 people voted. Total including mail with one day left: 79,670 or 9 percent
Democrats: 40,256, or 10.4 percent
Republicans: 32,118, or 11.8 percent.
Going to be a stretch for either party to get to 20 percent, but it could be close.
Day 12, Wednesday, June 8: Turnout dropped off Wednesday -- 5,758 voted. So far in Clark County, turnout is at 59,896, which is higher than the 14 days of early voting in 2012 and close to the 61,000 of 2014. So it will be higher than both of the last cycle. Are people Peter Finch voters or are the incumbents turning out moderates?
It's still low, but: Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Total with mail: 72,335, or 8.1 percent
Democrats: 36,392, 9.4 percent
Republicans: 29,258, 10.7 percent
Amazing how similar the numbers are in those two competitive congressional primaries (sorry, Jesse, yours ain't). A little more than 14,000 have cast votes in those two contests, meaning, as I long suspected, 10,000 votes should be more than enough to win because about 25,000 will turn out in both races, maybe slightly more in CD3. And if it only takes 30 percent to win those primaries, which is possible, it may only take 7,500 votes. That's amazing.
I am really wondering at this point how much the tax toxicity and the horrible transgender bathroom mailers might be cutting these GOP legislative incumbents. Yes, each district has its own dynamics, but if Erv nelson loses, my guess is Glenn Trowbridge does, too (he's nested there, and turnout is very high). And if both of those lose, others are going down, too.
Bottom line: When those early/mail votes post early on Election Night, we will know a lot about the wave or lack thereof. If a lot of The Real Water Caucus folks win, most will lose in November. But that would also mean some quality incumbents have fallen and that Gov. Brian Sandoval, money and ground games couldn't save them from the fringe that votes in these low-turnout affairs.
I repeat this, too: Only about 100-150 people are voting per day in those districts. Scary.
Day 11, Tuesday, June 7: Biggest day yet -- 6,170 people voted in Clark County. Totals: 54,136 early and 11,787 mail, or 65,923. That's 7.4 percent.
Democrats: 33,052, or 8.5 percent
Republicans: 26,744, or 9.8 percent
If numbers continue to ramp up in the last three days, both parties will be well over 10 percent for early/mail voting. Election Day turnout will be anywhere from 5 percent to 10 percent if history holds. So it's still going to be low.
Turnout in the key congressional primaries -- GOP in CD3 and Dems in CD3 -- is now up above 10 percent. The higher it gets in CD3, the better for Michael Roberson, I'd say. Can they get it to 25 percent by the end of the day Tuesday? In CD4, the Culinary and labor folks appear to be getting voters out for Ruben Kihuen, but if that turnout gets much above 20 percent, does that hurt him? Field matters, especially in primaries.
It seems clear that a quarter of voters will turn out in the Seaman-Nelson race, which could help Nelson overcome what insiders think is a significant Seaman edge. But I don't know a lot of Establishment Rs who feel good about that one.
Day 10, Monday, June 6: 5,593 voted in Clark County on Monday. Add in mail ballots and total is now 58,727 -- 10,762 are mail. Total is 6.6 percent, with Republicans (8.7 percent) and Democrats (7.6 percent) well above that number.
Raw numbers still above 2014 and 2012, although it seems unlikely GOP will reach 15 percent turnout (early/mail) of last cycle despite interest in those primaries. Democrats only had 10 percent last cycle and will surmount that; in 2012, Republicans had 14 percent and Democrats had 11 percent. Remember, too: If past is prologue, GOP turnout will be three or four points higher than Democrats on Election Day.
For those hoping that Establishment GOP types will not be wiped out -- and there is much fretting out there -- one sign of hope: There are a large nuber of absentee ballots in some of the race, which sophisticated and well-funded campaigns can generate. Could they save Michael Roberson and Erv Nelson and some of those Assembly tax-supporters? All of those camps are very, very worried by this point, I'd guess.
Day 9, Sunday, June 5: 4,872 voted Sunday, bringing the early/mail total to 52,623. That's just under 6 percent of all voters.
Context: In 2014, about 76,500 turned out by mail and for early voting, after all was said and done, or about 10 percent. Total turnout after Election Day was just under 16 percent. Democrats were 14 percent and GOP was 25 percent. In 2012, the numbers were not much different.
If you look at those two competitive congressional primaries (CD3 for Repubs and CD4 for Dems), you can see in the neighborhood of 10,000 people have voted. There seems no reason to believe that the eventual totals will be more than 25,000, if that. Only about 1,100 voters in those primaries are casting ballots every day, so it's reasonable to assume 16,000 or 17,000 will have voted by the end of early voting Friday (upticks possible as the week goes on), so 25,000 may be high.
It probably will take under 10,000 votes to win those nominations. And for the legislative races, just a few hundred votes. That's it.
Day 8, Saturday, June 4: Second biggest day of the period and largest since the first day on Saturday: 5,348 voted. Totals: 37,500 have voted early at the polls, 10,251 by mail. That's 47,751, or 5.4 percent.
Democrats: 24,164, 6.2 percent
Republicans: 19,119, 7 percent
Not much new in the subdivisions. Look at it this way: About 1,000 people a day are voting in the congressional primaries and about 100 (!) a day are voting on average in those Assembly primaries. The Seaman-Nelson race has about 250 a day.
Day 7, Friday, June 3: One week in the books, and steady as she goes. 4,142 people voted in Clark County on Friday, bringing the week's total to 32,152. That's about 25 percent more than voted in the first week two and four years ago. So there is more interest, mostly because of those competitive congressional primaries and some intense GOP legislative contests. Early voting in the second week traditionally increases significantly -- 37,000 voted early in Week 2 last cycle and 31,000 in 2012 -- so the chances of getting close to 20 percent, if historical trends hold, are good.
The total including mail ballots is 41,672, or just under 5 percent of all registared voters in Clark County. Republicans are above 6 percent, thanks to all of those competitive contests, while Democrats are just under 5.5 percent. But the number of votes needed to win any of these races will be very, very low.
Day 6, Thursday, June 2: Four thousand people voted in Clark County on Thursday, bringing the total early voted to 28,000. Yes, still well ahead of two and four years ago, mostly generated by high GOP turnout in those primaries, especially CD3, which is nearly two percentage points above the overall turnout. I can extrapolate better after one full week, but it appears now that the turnout will be at 20 percent-plus, higher in key races.
So I still think it won't take much more than 10,000 votes -- if that -- to win one of those key congressional primaries.
Keep an eye on the SD6 primary between Erv Nelson and Victoria Seman. Not only has it become exceedingly ugly, with sick children and private Mormon elder conversations now at issue (don't ask): The turnout there is nearly 3 percentage points above the overall turnout, which means either Nelson is doing something right (lots of absentees, which could be his well-funded campaign) or that Seaman has energized the anti-tax base. Remember, even though it's relatively high, it's still....under 6 percent!
Those Assembly districts remain high, too, as you can see below. I am puzzled by the much higher turnout in Glenn Trowbridge's district (UPDATE: Astute observer points out Trowbridge district inside SD6. Now it makes sense.) and the amazingly low turnout in Brent Jones' district.
Day 5, Wednesday, June 1: About 4,700 people voted early on Wednesday in Clark County, bringing the total to 24,000 -- or a little under what the totals were for seven days in 2014 and 2012. 7,600 have voted absentee, so the total is now 31,600, or 3.6 percent of the total registered electorate. Republicans (4.6 percent) are still outpacing Democrats (4.1 percent).
Turnout in key primaries remains well above the average, as you can see below. Ordinarily, I'd say that means incumbents or perceived incumbents (Michael Roberson) may have an advantage. But this year on the GOP side, with so many Republicans coming out to vote their spleens (hello, Donald J. Trump), the higher turnout may be cause for worry.
Day 4, Tuesday, May 31: About 4,900 people voted early on Tuesday in Clark County, bringing the total to just under 19,300. That's well ahead of the pace of 2014 and 2012, years in which more than 24,500 voted in the first week. Those totals could be surpassed Wednesday. The total turnout, including the nearly 5,800 mail ballots cast, is still just 2.8 percent, although both parties, as you can see below, are higher -- 3.6 percent for Republicans and 3.3 percent for Democrats.
Tunrout in those three competitive congressional primaries continues to run slightly above the overall turnout percentages, but not by a huge amount. The highest turnouts are in that primary for Mark Lipparelli's state Senate seat and a few of the GOP Assembly primaries, too. The turnout in the bids by Glenn Trowbridge and Derek Armstrong to hold their seats after voting for taxes is relatively high, which is either a sign they are turning out their voters or their constituents are really mad at them. Turnout in Brent Jones' race is very low, which could be a good sign for him.
I am struck by how few votes it will take to win one of these legislative primaries, just a few hundred in some cases. Scary.
Four days of data is almost a third of the early data, so we may be seeing a trend that could push overall turnout above 20 percent. That could help some of these moderate Republicans, but I'd like more data (and some exit polls) to reach any definitive conlcusions.
Day 3, Monday, May 30: Just under 4,500 people voted in Clark County, so about 500 more than on Sunday. The total is about 2.5 percent for both parties.
I have created a spreadsheet to make this easier to digest every day. Both parties are turning out at about the same rate. CD4 has highest turnout of the competitive congressional primaries, at 2.8 percent, but only slightly higher than that CD3 race on both sides.
The Seaman-Nelson trunout is significantly higher than the overall turnout for both parties. So are several of those comeptitive GOP Assembly primaries, especially Glenn Trowbridge's effort to hang on and Derek Armstrong's.
Day 2, Sunday, May 29:
Significant dropoff on Sunday as just under 4,000 people voted in Clark County -- that's 2,000 fewer than Saturday. FIXED TO ADD MAIL TO THESE NUMBERS: Total turnout is now 9,930, or a little more than 1 percent. With mail (nothing new on Sunday), 14,113 -- that's 1.6 percent. Breakdown: 7,434 Democrats (1.9 percent turnout), 5,286 Republicans (1.9 percent turnout).
By this time in 2014, only 6,500 had voted (the second day pace -- 2,500 then -- also is well ahead of last cycle). In 2012, 7,000 had voted.
So people are more interested in this election than I thought -- at least so far. Again, only one-seventh of early voting/mail data is in. (Mail is same because no mail on Sunday.)
Some key numbers -- these are combined EV/mail:
►CD3: 2,564 Democrats (1.9 percent) and 2,741 Republicans (2 percent) have voted. So both about at overall turnout.
►CD4: On the Democratic side in Clark County, 2,603 have voted. That's 2 percent.
►Seaman-Nelson: 549 have voted, or 2.3 percent, so someone's getting voters out there.
►Assembly: Still not a lot of votes to go on in those key GOP primaries. Most have under 200 votes cast. A small sampling of the contested districts show elevated turnout levels in key races -- 2 percent in Gardner-Orrock and 2.4 percent in Silberkraus-Groves. Higher it gets, I'd guess, better for incumbents. But so few votes, such an unconventional year....
►Kirkpatrick-Ross: 1,062 Democrats have voted. That's 1.9 percent, also at the overall turnout.
So interest is higher than usual, and interest in those competitive districts is fueling it. Once again, my caveat: Two days does not a trend make.
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Early voting in Clark County, where the key congressional and legislative races are occurring, was 50 percent greater than last year’s first day and a record, but still gruesomely low.
Just under 6,000 voted in Southern Nevada on the first of 14 days of early voting -- the pre-Election Day ballots cast traditionally make up at least half of the total vote, and with mail, make up almost two-thirds. About 4,000 voted on the first day the last two cycles. There are 890,000 registered voters in Clark, so a little more than half a percent have turned out so far. With mail ballots – 4,100 returned so far – 10,000 have voted in Clark, or just above 1 percent.
The Washoe numbers are similarly low – just under 2,000 turned out, also under 1 percent. But I am going to concentrate on Clark on this blog – no statewide races this cycle to talk about in the primary (Joe will beat Sharron) -- which will update every day.
Here are some thoughts on the first day of early voting in Clark (totals for the last two cycles are below):
►I don’t extrapolate a lot from one day, although last cycle’s first-day general election numbers were so jarring that I was able to predict the GOP wave 17 days before Election Day. Primaries are harder. Turnout was 16 percent overall in 2012 and 2014, with 112,000 and 123,000 votes cast, respectively. So you can see how small this sample is.
►CD4: The Clark part of the district has 127,000 Democratic voters, which is 91 percent of the total. If there is 20 percent turnout, or 54,000 voters, it may take under 15,000 votes to win a three-and-a-half person race (Moose Arberry is the half). On Day One, 1,205 Democrats turned out and 714 mail ballots have been returned so far. So that’s 1.5 percent, or about 50 percent more than the overall turnout percentage the first day.
►CD3: The Democratic side has 133,500 voters; the GOP side has 129,000 voters. Similar numbers apply here as in the CD4 race. A very small number of votes will be required to become a congressional nominee. On Day One, almost identical numbers of Democrats (1,165) and Republicans (1,167) turned out. Five hundred sixty Democratic absentees and 717 GOP absentees have been returned. That’s 1.3 percent and 1.5 percent, so I see a slight spike, especially in the Roberson-Tark race.
►State Senate: I’ll keep an eye on the Victoria Seaman-Erv Nelson turnout in District Six, which has 23,500 Republican voters. It may take under 2,500 votes to win. I would guess higher turnout helps Nelson. On Day One, 184 Republicans voted and 231 mail ballots have been returned. So with that total, about 1.8 percent have voted, so you can see the percentage compared to the overall turnout.
►Assembly: I will look for spikes in any of the districts where incumbents or challengers are being opposed by members of The Real Water caucus, the Brent Jones Gang. Not much to see yet. So few votes will be cast in these races. A couple of samples: David-Gardner-Diana Orrock -- 42 voted, 81 absentees. That’s 1.2 percent. Stephen Silberkraus-Amy Groves – 136 and 74, or 1.7 percent. We’ll know more in all of these after a week or so, I’d say.
►CCC: In District B, where the Marilyn Kirkpatrick-Steve Ross race is occurring, there are 56,000 Democrats. On Day One, 516 voted and 270 mail ballots are in. So, that’s 1.4 percent, a bit of a spike compared to overall.
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2014
775,859 REGISTERED VOTERS
185,220 REGISTERED VOTERS
347,560 REGISTERED VOTERS
243,079 REGISTERED VOTERS
2012
690,357 REGISTERED VOTERS
151,698 REGISTERED VOTERS
307,126 REGISTERED VOTERS
231,533 REGISTERED VOTERS
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