Much has been written about how the Hispanic vote helped Democrats in 2012, from President Obama to many down-ticket races. It was certainly true in Nevada, where the Latino vote helped many candidates and almost elected Rep. Shelley Berkley to the U.S. Senate.
But in a piece Friday in National Journal, Hotline Editor Reid Wilson showed just how many Hispanic votes were left on the table in 2012. The premise of the piece is how the Latino vote lagged far behind the white vote in many states, especially battleground states.
In Nevada, according to Wilson's piece based on census data, Hispanic turnout was 52 percent, about 8 percentage points behind the white turnout. Translated into votes, that means there were 25,000 Hispanics who would have gone to the polls had the Latino vote matched the white vote.
Berkley lost to Dean Heller by fewer than 12,000 votes.
One calculation not in the story is the percentage of Hispanic voters relative to the overall electorate here in Nevada. The census showed 302,000 Hispanics and 52 percent turnout. That means 157,000 Latinos turned out.
The overall turnout in Nevada in 2012 was 1,016,664. So Hispanics made up about 15.5 percent, significantly less than the 18 percent found in exit polls. Both calculations have error margins; the question is which one is higher....
Much has been written about how the Hispanic vote helped Democrats in 2012, from President Obama to many down-ticket races. It was certainly true in Nevada, where the Latino vote helped many candidates and almost elected Rep. Shelley Berkley to the U.S. Senate.
But in a piece Friday in National Journal, Hotline Editor Reid Wilson showed just how many Hispanic votes were left on the table in 2012. The premise of the piece is how the Latino vote lagged far behind the white vote in many states, especially battleground states.
In Nevada, according to Wilson's piece based on census data, Hispanic turnout was 52 percent, about 8 percentage points behind the white turnout. Translated into votes, that means there were 25,000 Hispanics who would have gone to the polls had the Latino vote matched the white vote.
Berkley lost to Dean Heller by fewer than 12,000 votes.
One calculation not in the story is the percentage of Hispanic voters relative to the overall electorate here in Nevada. The census showed 302,000 Hispanics and 52 percent turnout. That means 157,000 Latinos turned out.
The overall turnout in Nevada in 2012 was 1,016,664. So Hispanics made up about 15.5 percent, significantly less than the 18 percent found in exit polls. Both calculations have error margins; the question is which one is higher....
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