The Democrats lose more ground in key state Senate districts

The key state Senate districts continue to tilt GOP, as the Democrats have lost ground in all three southern areas for quite some time.

You can see the details in the chart below, but it's clear that the GOP and its friends in Engage Nevada have focused their efforts in those three districts, although much of it is simply due to more Democrats being knocked off the books.

Some observations from an insider who did the analysis:

First, some overall observations.  Statewide registration increased by 4,159 in the month, but Democrats lost 2,335 voters and Republicans lost 422.  The big winner?  Nonpartisan registration increased by 5,791.  How disaffected D’s vote (those who changed registration from Democrat to nonpartisan) will be a factor in these races, as will the larger block of nonpartisan voters in general.   The shift away from the parties was reflected in the three key districts as well. All three had declines in total registration for the month, but the D’s lost more: D’s lost 230 in SD 8 while R’s lost 125; D’s lost 245 ins SD9 while R’s lost 45; and D’s lost 210 in SD20 while R’s lost 131.  This accounts for the net gains in each district for the R’s of 105, 200 and 79, respectively.  While this looks like there was some purging going on (hence the net reduction in all three districts), not everybody lost: nonpartisan registration increased by 99, 85 and 70, respectively, in the three districts.  Maybe the D’s need to look into hiring some of those nonpartisan registration workers.

Specific observations:

            1. Three districts, 10 months, D registration percentage falling in each district every single month.  That’s 30 for 30 and counting.

            2. The largest drop for the D’s occurred in the district in which they can least afford it, SD 9: Senator Jones only won by 301 votes 2 years ago, and his registration advantage dropped by 200 this month. The total change from close of registration in 2012 is now more than 1,000 voters.  His percentage point lead shrunk by 0.34, and is now almost 2 percentage points lower than it was last election (6.2 vs. 8.1). Considering that this district is the only one with a post-reapportionment election (the district is exactly the same as it was when Senator Jones was elected), there has been a remarkable change for such a short period.

            3. In addition to the importance of nonpartisan voters, turnout will play a large role in these elections. Given the D’s registration effort, is there any reason to believe their GOTV effort will save the day?  How enthused will D’s be to vote for Bob Goodman and a tax increase? Nonpartisan voters and turnout largely account for the fact that the R’s outperformed their registration numbers by between 5 and 12 percentage points in the last elections for these seats (and campaigns matter). “Men’s courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead.” (E. Scrooge)