Democrats double Republicans in voter reg last month, ominous sign for GOP

I have said and written many times that registration is not destiny. But those numbers mean something -- and 2016 is starting to look like 2012 and 2008 in Nevada, presidential years in which the Democrats did very well.

The latest numbers show the Democrats padded their statewide lead by about 5,000 voters in April, out-registering Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin. This came despite the herculean efforts of the conservative registration outfit, Engage NV, which is trying to make up for the biennial ineptitude of the state GOP and a surging Democratic Party eager to atone for the 2014 wipeout.

The numbers tell an ominous story for the GOP:

►Democrats now have a 64,635-voter lead over the GOP, or more than 5 percent (40-35). Democrats have added 47,606 voters this year; Republicans have added 30,583. Thus, the Democrats have increased their lead by about 17,000 voters. So the Democrats, mostly because of same-day registration for the Feb. 20 presidential caucus, have made up for recent losses because of voter roll attrition. These gains have been felt in congressional districts and legislative districts, too, widening Democratic leads or cutting into GOP edges. (See below.) For instance, in Clark County, the Democrats now have a nearly 113,000-voter edge -- that's a 13 percentage point edge.

In 2012, when President Obama won the state, the Democrats led by only 37,000 voters at this point; they ended up with a 90,000-voter edge by Election Day. In 2008, when Obama won the state, Democrats had a 51,000-voter edge at this point; they ended up with a 100,000-voter lead by Election Day. Republicans can point to Rep. Joe Heck and Sen. Dean Heller holding on despite the Democratic wave in 2012, but flawed Democratic contenders helped. And look how far ahead of those 2008 and 2012 paces the Democrats are.

Smart Republicans are worried about this trend, whether it is caused by Donald Trump or the Reid Machine or some combination thereof. The GOP can hold out hope that the growing nonpartisan registration, now at almost 19 percent, might favor their slate. But as Harry Reid seeks to go out with a bang, these numbers indicate the Democrats' chances of winning Nevada in the presidential race, keeping Reid's seat, taking two competitive congressional seats from the GOP and turning the Legislatrure blue again are not pie in the sky.

Some of the breakdowns in key areas:

Clark County - Democratic gain of 5,645

End of March: 12.6% (107,091) advantage

End of April: 12.9% (112,822) advantage


Washoe County - Democratic loss of 49

End of March: 2.2% (5,184) disadvantage

End of April: 2.2% (5,231) disadvantage



Congressional District Highlights


Congressional District 3 – Democratic gain of 1,049

End of March: 1.0% (3,274) advantage

End of April: 1.3% (4,350) advantage


Congressional District 4 - Democratic gain of 1,514

End of March: 9.7% (30,392) advantage

End of April: 10.0% (31,923) advantage



Senate District Highlights


Senate District 5 – Democratic gain of 192

End of March: 5.1% (3,165) advantage

End of April: 5.3% (3,367) advantage


Senate District 6 – Democratic gain of 286

End of March: 5.2% (3,370) advantage

End of April: 5.5% (3,656) advantage


Senate District 15 – Democratic gain of 29

End of March: 2.3% (1,755) disadvantage

End of April: 2.3% (1,730) disadvantage



State Assembly District Highlights


Assembly District 5 – Democratic Gain of 179

End of March: 6.6% (1,892) advantage

End of April: 7.0% (2,070) advantage


Assembly District 8 – Democratic gain of 157

End of March: 14.8% (3,694) advantage

End of April: 15.0% (3,849) advantage


Assembly District 9 - Democratic gain of 157

End of March: 7.3% (2,120) advantage

End of April: 7.6% (2,284) advantage


Assembly District 10 - Democratic gain of 268

End of March: 23.7% (5,225) advantage

End of April: 24.2% (5,494) advantage


Assembly District 21 - Democratic gain of 96

End of March: 7.2% (2,109) advantage

End of April: 7.4% (2,210) advantage


Assembly District 29 - Democratic gain of 96

End of March: 3.2% (1,056) advantage

End of April: 3.4% (1,157) advantage


Assembly District 34 - Democratic gain of 157

End of March: 12.8% (3,784) advantage

End of April: 13.1% (3,939) advantage


Assembly District 35 - Democratic gain of 174

End of March: 5.3% (1,741) advantage

End of April: 5.7% (1,918) advantage


Assembly District 41 - Democratic gain of 145

End of March: 7.2% (2,129) advantage

End of April: 7.5% (2,274) advantage