How dumb were Nevada Republicans not to have same-day registration at their caucus? Very dumb

Democrats added about 12,000 voters to their statewide registration advantage over Republicans last month, benefiting from thousands of voters who registered at the Feb. 20 caucus.

This not only potentially changes the statewide dynamic in the presidential and U.S. Senate races -- Democrats now have a 60,000-voter lead -- but also affected key areas down the ticket, including competitive congressional districts -- CD3, Rep. Joe Heck's seat, now has 3,300 more Democrats than Republicans, and CD4, Rep. Cresent Hardy's district, now has 30,400 more Democrats (What were you thinking of doing after public service, congressman?). 

The 60,000-voter statewide edge compares to 35,000 at the same time four years ago and 45,000 in 2008. Democrats usually surge during the summer of presidential years, so the real test for Republican registration outfits is to try to offset that. At the end of 2012, Democrats had a 90,000-voter lead and at the end of 2008, it was close to 100,000.

Check out the raw numbers below. These are all varying levels of ominous for the GOP.

Statewide

March - Democratic gain of 11,921 statewide

End of March: 4.8% (59,594) advantage

Total: 1,251,747 (+22,130 from end of Feb)

Dem: 501,513 (+16,320 from end of Feb)

GOP: 441,919 (+4,399 from end of Feb)

 

Urban counties

 

Clark County - Democratic gain of 9,834

End of February: 11.7% (97,343) advantage

End of March: 12.6% (107,177) advantage

 

Washoe County - Democratic gain of 2,174

End of February:  3.1% (7,356) disadvantage

End of March: 2.2% (5,182) disadvantage

 

Congressional Districts 3 and 4

 

Congressional District 3 - Democratic gain of 3,484

End of February: 0.1% (183) disadvantage

End of March: 1.0% (3,301) advantage

 

Congressional District 4 - Democratic gain of 2,625 

End of February: 9.0% (27,784) advantage

End of March: 9.7% (30,409) advantage

 

 

Key Senate Districts

 

Senate District 5 - Democratic gain of 676

End of February: 4.1% (2,499) advantage

End of March: 4.9% (3,175) advantage

 

Senate District 6 - Democratic gain of 562 

End of February: 4.4% (2,808) advantage

End of March: 5.2% (3,370) advantage

 

Senate District 15 - Democratic gain of 619

End of February: 3.2% (2,378) disadvantage

End of March: 2.3% (1,759) disadvantage

 

 

Key Assembly Districts

 

Assembly District 5 - Democratic gain of 323

End of February: 5.5% (1,568) advantage

End of March: 6.6% (1,891) advantage

 

Assembly District 8 - Democratic gain 366 

End of February: 13.6% (3,326) advantage

End of March: 14.8% (3,692) advantage

 

Assembly District 9 - Democratic gain of 374 

End of February: 6.2% (1,753) advantage

End of March: 7.3% (2,127) advantage

 

Assembly District 10 - Democratic gain of 352 

End of February: 22.7% (4,874) advantage

End of March: 23.8% (5,226) advantage

 

Assembly District 21 - Democratic gain of 349 

End of February: 6.2% (1,765) advantage

End of March: 7.2% (2,114) advantage

 

Assembly District 29 - Democratic gain of 327 

End of February: 2.5% (734) advantage

End of March: 3.2% (1,061) advantage

 

Assembly District 34 - Democratic gain of 280 

End of February: 12.1% (3,502) advantage

End of March: 12.8% (3,782) advantage

 

Assembly District 35 - Democratic gain of 376

End of February: 4.3% (1,368) advantage

End of March: 5.3% (1,744) advantage

 

Assembly District 41 - Democratic gain of 416 

End of February: 5.9% (1,713) advantage

End of March: 7.2% (2,129)

 

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