What to watch for tonight

A sliver of the electorate will make decisions by the end of Tuesday that will shape the races for the fall.

Here's what to watch for as the returns come in, and check my Twitter feed (@ralstonreports) tonight for results:

1. Turnout will not be much more than 5 percent today and may be half that, if past is prologue (under 6 percent the last two cycles). Two-thirds of the votes likley have been cast before today. So in Clark County, where all but a couple of key races will take place, only a few hundred votes will be cast in legislative races and a few thousand in those congressional primaries.

2. In CD3, watch when those first early voting/absentee ballot voting numbers are posted before 8 PM (we hope). Danny Tarkanian likely will be ahead of Michael Roberson. But by how much? If it's just a few hundred votes, Roberson has a chance. I'd guess 10,000 or fewer votes will be cast today -- and that may be high -- so Roberson has little margin for error. The higher the turnout, the better chance he has.

3. In CD4, if the Culinary union has done its job, Ruben Kihuen will be up after those early numbers post. If he's not, that could be ominous. But if he's up by a lot, Election Day turnout is unlikely to help Susie Lee and Lucy Flores. I'd guess no more than 7,000 votes or so will be cast today. (UPDATE: In the rural areas of the district, fewer than 1,000 votes have been cast early compared to 18,000 in Clark. Watch for Nye (by far the biggest) and parts of Lyon (because entire county not in district).)

4. Will the tax increase backlash cometh? In those GOP legislative primaries, check the leads when the early numbers post. Election Day should favor the incumbents and candidates embraced by leadership. If any of them are far behind, they likely will not be able to catch up. Only a few hundred votes, perhaps a 1,000 in a few districts, will be cast today. Keep an eye on two races up North -- P.K. O'Neill and Randy Kirner's seat -- and about 10 in Clark County, including one state Senate seat (Mark Lipparelli's), where Victoria Seaman may have a big lead after the first votes are posted over Erv Nelson. I fear many close contests, with wailing from losers.

Watch these southern races:

GOP -- John Hambrick (AD2), Michele Fiore's seat (AD4), Erv Nelson's seat (AD5), David Gardner (AD9), Paul Anderson (AD13), Chris Edwards (AD19), Derek Armstrong (AD21), Lynn Stewart's seat (AD22), Stephen Silberkraus, Brent Jones (AD35), Glenn Trowbridge (AD37) and James Oscarson (AD36). In those open seats, Anderson has anointed candidates and the Real Water Caucus has recruited challengers. Brent Jones, Ira Hansen & Co. are doing robocalls against fellow Republicans. Several incumbents could lose.

Democrats -- Watch Richard Carrillo's race (AD18) and primaries in AD21 and AD34.

The great young reporters, Riley Snyder, Megan Messerly and Michelle Rindels, have posted a comprehensive guide.