Tark pollster: We're up double digits and race is "becoming a more likely win"

In a polling memo surely designed to rev up the base and maybe raise a little money, Danny Tarkanian's pollsters expressed confidence this week in a missive headlined, "Tarkanian momentum grows."

The memo, attached here, from David Polyansky and Ed Goeas, says a survey they took last week showed the congressional hopeful up 10 percentage points over Steven Horsford. That's hardly an outlier as other surveys, including one posted on this site have shown the same, and Democrats are manifestly worried.

No doubt referring to this week's insertion of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid into the CD4 race, they write Horsford has "hit the panic button." The memo emphasizes the rural outreach by Team Tark -- that's how he won the primary -- and claims the campaign has identified more supporters "than our turnout model necessitates." The memo also mentions the ads from the National Republican Congressional Committee and Crossroads as reflective of a "sincere investment and belief" in Tarkanian's ability to win.

Despite the double-digit lead, Tarkanian's pollsters seem to understand that the 13-point Democratic registration edge will make this close by the end. If Horsford can solidify his Democratic base, he can get killed in the cow counties and still win. 

The memo is worth a read, although I should note the campaign declined to let me see the entire poll and claimed not to have any more recent information.