by Jon Ralston Fri, 10/19/2012 - 06:05
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Trying to think of something dumber, brb... t.co/8fKl0oCLul
8 hours 39 min ago.
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Our @danielrothberg’s indispensable environmental newsletter is out! t.co/qrGPprNz50
11 hours 4 min ago.
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I am not exactly sure what the category below shitshow is, but this amazing piece by @jess_hillyeah shows (again) t… t.co/M5nF7rjGEa
12 hours 13 min ago.
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"If Democrats and Republicans together stand up for Iowa, we stand up for rural America. In a modest way and with N… t.co/uveKPaScOt
12 hours 56 min ago.
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Good morning from The #WeMatter State.
On this date in 2015, AG Adam Laxalt joined a suit against a Barack Obama i… t.co/Xpjp7oT1Ua
13 hours 27 min ago.
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This is interesting... t.co/zU0PlA7hb6
1 day 4 hours ago.
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Worst part is not mice or expired food but "cats living inside."
The horror.
cc: @MichelleRindels @elizthompsn t.co/3xj8YhkqFG
1 day 7 hours ago.
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If you want context and background and fact-checking on the governor's speech Monday, Team @TheNVIndy has you cover… t.co/uZcZ2CpIjL
1 day 8 hours ago.
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Coming up soon @TheNVIndy: Our team annotated the governor's State of the State speech. You won't see anything like… t.co/3BglBgRfkL
1 day 9 hours ago.
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"The survey conducted last month also found 95 percent of those surveyed support the right to an abortion, even tho… t.co/ZU6KIsuzT3
1 day 10 hours ago.
Darren Littel, an RNC operative helping lead the GOP effort here, tweeted this on Thursday: "In #NV absentee ballots GOP outperforming reg numbers by 7%, Dems under performing by 2 points"
Wow. That sounds huge.
But, as always, context is called for.
Republicans nearly always beat Democrats in absentee ballots -- they did by a few points two and four years ago. And mail ballots are a small percentage of the overall vote.
Republicans can't match the Democratic ground game (unions, etc.), so absentees are one way to try to mitigate the damage. But by how much?
Here are some facts:
----Democrats actually lead Republicans in ballot requests, and they have built up that huge lead in voter registration (if you count inactive voters, where Democrats have a 2-to-1 lead, it's even bigger than '08 statewide--and a signficant number of those will vote).
----More Democrats have requested ballots than Republicans – a sharp turnaround compared with 2008. 26,363 Democrats have requested ballots compared with 25,443 Republicans. This means Democrats have an advantage of D +920. But at this point in 2008, Republicans had an advantage of R +8,774. Democrats have gained a net D +9,694 compared with 2008, when Obama won the state by 12.4 percentage points. If Democrats can do a decent job of chasing those requests, well....
----Democrats have gained on Republicans in ballots returned. At this point in 2008, Republicans led by 2,274 in ballots returned. Thus, Democrats have cut the margin by 42 percent in 2012.
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