Poll: Heller, Berkley tight; Heck and Tarkanian with solid leads

Sen. Dean Heller is leading by 2 percentage points over Rep. Shelley Berkley, Rep. Joe Heck is beating Speaker John Oceguera by 11 and Danny Tarkanian is defeating Steven Horsford by 8.

Those are the findings of an independent poll conducted at the end of last month by Precision Opinion, a Nevada firm with experience polling for national Democrats. The sample for the Senate race is very large (1,521), so the margin of error is about 2.5 percent. The congressional samples are smaller, so the margin of error is about 5 percent for each.

Details of the poll, complete with crosstabs, breakdowns by congressional districts and other data, as well as my analysis of the sample (it has one anomaly (way too few Hispanics)  that should worry Heller and make the two Democratic congressional candidates feel better), are available to premium subscribers.


45-43, Heller

49-38, Heck

44-36, Tarkanian