Poll: Democrats look good in key state Senate district

A new poll taken for Senate Democrats shows their candidate in a key district with leads over both possible GOP nominees.

The survey, taken by Democratic firm PPP, shows Democrat Nicole Cannizzaro with leads over Republican Assembly members Victoria Seaman and Erv Nelson, with the latter not faring as well in the ballot test. The poll, whose memo I have posted below (and I have seen the entire survey), also indicates some weakness from Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump in the district.

The poll was taken last week of 500 Senate District 6 voters (this is the seat Mark Lipparelli is vacating). It has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

A few caveats and thoughts:

►PPP is a robopoller, so the usual precautions apply, although the sample size is relatively large. The partisan divide (and it is self ID)  – 44 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans – is a 4 percentage-point higher lead for Democrats than actual registration, which is quite generous to the Democrats.

The fact that Seaman shows up as a stronger general election candidate will surely be used by her once she discovers the results. I’m sure the Democrats love this.

This is very early. No one knows any of these people, although Seaman has been in the mail a lot and that may help her here.

Clinton tied with Trump in a district where the universe polled has a 10-point Democratic lead? That’s either wrong or ominous. Good news for Democrats, though: If Seaman or Nelson are tethered to Trump, big problems and a cautionary tale for all Republicans.



PPP_Memo_NV_SD6_4.11.16.pdf by Jon Ralston