Latest statewide update. 132,547 have voted. That's 11 percent today and 36 percent overall. Clark down 5 percent at less than 63 percent of turnout, Washoe at registration at 20 percent, rurals up 5 percent over registration at 17 percent.
I see red people. All on the Dems for after-work voting or carnage will be massive.
T-minus 3.5 hours until polls close:
Clark is up to just under 35 percent. 81,685 turned out. Still well below normal midterm year.
Statewide update shows 35 percent so far. Going to get to 40 percent, after all. (Still missing six of rural counties for PM update.)
T-minus 4 hours until polls close:
As of 2:30, Washoe up to 25,917. That's 11 percent Election Day turnout. That's just under 40 percent.
53,818 as of 10:30. My guess is GOP rural ballot lead is now up to 18,000 or so. Will be 20,000 at least, maybe 25,000. That means Dems have to make up that many ballots in Clark and Washoe. Tough. (Also, the more rural votes that pour in, the harder it is for Steven Horsford to retain his congressional seat.)
----53,308 people had turned out in 13 of 17 counties. That's not even 4.5 percent of all registered voters. We are still under 30 percent as of 10:30.
----The percentages of the vote breakdown of Clark-Washoe-rural is: 64-21-15. So Clark still down (from 68 percent reg) but better than pre-Election Day (60 percent). Not enough votes yet to help in CD4, I don't think. The higher the rural vote gets, the more trouble for statewide Dems.
T-minus 7.5 hours until polls close:
Most ominous sign yet for Dems and possibly presaging statewide sweep for GOP: Latest Election Day update from SOS shows percentage of total early/mail vote from Clark County is down to 60 percent. That is incredibly low, about 8 points below its registration.
Washoe is at 22.5 percent or almost 4 points above its registration.
And the rurals, where Democrats will get slaughtered, are at 17.5 percent, also 4 points above registration.
Also, the link below shows you that 11,380 people had voted today in Washoe by 10:30. That brings Washoe turnout up to 32 percent.
I see red people.
T-minus 8 hours until polls close:
First update shows 34,333 people had voted in Clark County by 10:30. That is still extraordinarily low and not good for Democrats. Total turnout still below 28 percent in Clark.
By the way, the SOS has an Election Day update with absentees: Not much change, except pretty robust turnout in rural Nevada.
T-minus 8.5 hours until polls close:
I will be updating this blog as often as I can today with data, thoughts, analysis.
Please follow me on Twitter @RalstonReports for more.
We will be getting at least two reports of turnout during the day -- one late morning and one late afternoon.
Here's what to remember:
The Democrats need a huge turnout in Clark County, where they lead in registration by 107,000, but where only 22 percent of their voters have turned out compared with 32 percent of Republicans. It's essentially even in ballots.
There are about 278,000 Democrats and 172,000 Republicans who had not voted yet before today in Clark County. If the Democrats can turn out today anything close to what they turned out in early/mail voting -- i.e. about 80,000 voters -- they probably will save people. But that will be extraordinarily difficult, if not impossible. If they get 50,000 to turn out, that would be huge.
The Republicans just need to do what they did in early/mail, which is continue to keep pace. The Democrats hope the Republicans got all their inveterates out already but that's just wishful thinking.
Turnout is going to be much lower than any recent midterm, probably below 50 percent.
CD4 has a +1,200 Democratic lead in Clark, a nearly 2,000 vote GOP lead overall. Those numbers mean Rep. Steven Horsford is in big trouble. Turnout there will be criticial. The Culinary union has dozens of folks out on the streets to try to save him.
T-minus 2 hours until polls close:
Latest statewide update. 132,547 have voted. That's 11 percent today and 36 percent overall. Clark down 5 percent at less than 63 percent of turnout, Washoe at registration at 20 percent, rurals up 5 percent over registration at 17 percent.
I see red people. All on the Dems for after-work voting or carnage will be massive.
T-minus 3.5 hours until polls close:
Clark is up to just under 35 percent. 81,685 turned out. Still well below normal midterm year.
Statewide update shows 35 percent so far. Going to get to 40 percent, after all. (Still missing six of rural counties for PM update.)
T-minus 4 hours until polls close:
As of 2:30, Washoe up to 25,917. That's 11 percent Election Day turnout. That's just under 40 percent.
Overall turnout at just under 71,000
T-minus 4.5 hours until polls close:
All but two rural counties in now. But Lyon is a pretty big one not to have.
53,818 as of 10:30. My guess is GOP rural ballot lead is now up to 18,000 or so. Will be 20,000 at least, maybe 25,000. That means Dems have to make up that many ballots in Clark and Washoe. Tough. (Also, the more rural votes that pour in, the harder it is for Steven Horsford to retain his congressional seat.)
Is a statewide sweep coming?
Get crossovers and indies or die.
More turnout numbers by 4 PM or so.
T-minus 5.5 hours until polls close:
The state has updated Election Day turnout numbers. These are already three hours old, but consider:
----53,308 people had turned out in 13 of 17 counties. That's not even 4.5 percent of all registered voters. We are still under 30 percent as of 10:30.
----The percentages of the vote breakdown of Clark-Washoe-rural is: 64-21-15. So Clark still down (from 68 percent reg) but better than pre-Election Day (60 percent). Not enough votes yet to help in CD4, I don't think. The higher the rural vote gets, the more trouble for statewide Dems.
T-minus 7.5 hours until polls close:
Most ominous sign yet for Dems and possibly presaging statewide sweep for GOP: Latest Election Day update from SOS shows percentage of total early/mail vote from Clark County is down to 60 percent. That is incredibly low, about 8 points below its registration.
Washoe is at 22.5 percent or almost 4 points above its registration.
And the rurals, where Democrats will get slaughtered, are at 17.5 percent, also 4 points above registration.
Also, the link below shows you that 11,380 people had voted today in Washoe by 10:30. That brings Washoe turnout up to 32 percent.
I see red people.
T-minus 8 hours until polls close:
First update shows 34,333 people had voted in Clark County by 10:30. That is still extraordinarily low and not good for Democrats. Total turnout still below 28 percent in Clark.
By the way, the SOS has an Election Day update with absentees: Not much change, except pretty robust turnout in rural Nevada.
T-minus 8.5 hours until polls close:
I will be updating this blog as often as I can today with data, thoughts, analysis.
Please follow me on Twitter @RalstonReports for more.
We will be getting at least two reports of turnout during the day -- one late morning and one late afternoon.
Here's what to remember:
The Democrats need a huge turnout in Clark County, where they lead in registration by 107,000, but where only 22 percent of their voters have turned out compared with 32 percent of Republicans. It's essentially even in ballots.
There are about 278,000 Democrats and 172,000 Republicans who had not voted yet before today in Clark County. If the Democrats can turn out today anything close to what they turned out in early/mail voting -- i.e. about 80,000 voters -- they probably will save people. But that will be extraordinarily difficult, if not impossible. If they get 50,000 to turn out, that would be huge.
The Republicans just need to do what they did in early/mail, which is continue to keep pace. The Democrats hope the Republicans got all their inveterates out already but that's just wishful thinking.
Turnout is going to be much lower than any recent midterm, probably below 50 percent.
CD4 has a +1,200 Democratic lead in Clark, a nearly 2,000 vote GOP lead overall. Those numbers mean Rep. Steven Horsford is in big trouble. Turnout there will be criticial. The Culinary union has dozens of folks out on the streets to try to save him.
Here are the Clark legislative seats to watch:
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