Democrats continue to extend registration lead across the board

UPDATED, 2:15 PM, 7/11/16:

It may be even worse than it looks for the GOP, if history is a guide.

I have already showed you how far ahead of the last two presidential cycles the Democrats are. But because they have so many groups doing voter registration this time -- locals such as the Culinary as well as national activists -- and the GOP only really has the party (such as it is) and Engage NV, consider what could happen during the next four months:

►On July 1, 2008, the GOP deficit was 55,560; by close of registration for November, it was 100,723.

On July 1, 2012, the GOP deficit was 44,179; by close of registration for November, it was 90,187. 

On July 1, 2016, the GOP deficit was 69,761; if the Democrats match their past presidential cycle efforts, they will register about 45,000 voters from now until the election. That means the edge could be 115,000 or more. And considering how many Democratic-aligned groups are here doing voter registration and considering how helpful Donald Trump has been to the efforts, there is no reason to believe the numbers will be any smaller -- and they could be bigger.

There's a word for that if it happens: Sweep. Or perhaps two more words are more apt: Permanent realignment.


Nevada Democrats continue to extend their voter registration advantage, not just statewide but in key political subdivisions, as GOP-aligned groups have been unable to slow the widending gap.

When I last checked more than two months ago, the Democrats had a more than 64,000-voter edge in Nevada; it is now just under 70,000 voters. This remains well ahead of the pace in the last two presidential cycles.

I always say that demographics are not destiny -- especially with about a quarter of the electorate not registered with either major party. But the numbers mean something.

Here are the numbers since registration closed for the primary on May 24 and through the end of June, showing just how deep the advantage is across key subdivisions. The Clark County numbers are up more than 1,000 over the numbers below as of this moring --more than 121,000 more Democrats than Republicans registered.

Pre-Primary: 5.1 percent (66,096) statewide advantage

End of June: 5.3 percent (69,761) statewide advantage

Democratic gain of 3,665 statewide

Total: 1,321,912 (+26,290 since May 24)

Dem: 528,589 (+10,465 since May 24)

GOP: 458,828 (+6,800 since May 24)

Clark County – Democratic gain of 4,426

Pre-Primary: 13.0 percent (115,605) advantage

End of June: 13.2 percent (120,031) advantage

Congressional District 3 – Democratic gain of 555

Pre-Primary: 1.3 percent (4,649) advantage

End of June: 1.4 percent (5,204) advantage

Congressional District 4 – Democratic gain of 1,160

Pre-Primary: 10.1 percent (32,739) advantage

End of June: 10.2 percent (33,899) advantage

Senate District 5 – Democratic gain of 93

Pre-Primary: 5.3 percent (3,418) advantage

End of June: 5.3 percent (3,511) advantage

Senate District 6 – Democratic gain of 214

Pre-Primary: 5.8 percent (3,844) advantage

End of June: 5.9 percent (4,058) advantage

Assembly District 5 – Democratic Gain of 92

Pre-Primary: 7.1 percent (2,110) advantage

End of June: 7.2 percent (2,202) advantage

Assembly District 8 – Democratic gain of 189

Pre-Primary: 15.1 percent (3,926) advantage

End of June: 15.4 percent (4,115) advantage

Assembly District 9 - Democratic gain of 127

Pre-Primary: 7.7 percent (2,347) advantage

End of June: 7.9 percent (2,474) advantage

Assembly District 10 - Democratic gain of 226

Pre-Primary: 24.2 percent (5,600) advantage

End of June: 24.5 percent (5,826) advantage

Assembly District 21 - Democratic gain of 53

Pre-Primary: 7.4 percent (2,237) advantage

End of June: 7.5 percent (2,290) advantage

Assembly District 29 - Democratic gain of 40

Pre-Primary: 3.4 percent (1,181) advantage

End of June: 3.5 percent (1,221) advantage

Assembly District 34 - Democratic gain of 159

Pre-Primary: 13.3 percent (4,075) advantage

End of June: 13.5 percent (4,234) advantage

Assembly District 35 - Democratic gain of 80

Pre-Primary: 5.8 percent (1,991) advantage

End of June: 5.9 percent (2,071) advantage

Assembly District 41 - Democratic gain of 172

Pre-Primary: 7.6 percent (2,326) advantage

End of June: 7.9 percent (2,498) advantage