Don't you hate pundits who make predictions and then never acknowledge where they were right and, even better for second-guessers, where they were wrong?
Not this pundit.
Here's the bottom line: I saw the wave coming long before anyone else. I had all the data. I could have justified a statewide sweep with that data. I almost did.
But I couldn't believe it would go that wide and deep, so I predicted a big wave, not a massive one. So:
►I foretold that the GOP would pick up two-thirds of the statewide offices (governor and lieutenant governor were pretty easy). But I thought established Democrats Ross Miller and Kate Marshall would survive. I underestimated just how low the Clark County turnout would be, how strongly Adam Laxalt would run in the high-turnout rurals and how robustly Barbara Cegavske would run in Clark. The wave lifted those two Republicans to victory, but Laxalt's rural work helped as did Cegavske's Clark base. I had both of those races being within a few points. I was right. But I was wrong on which side would win.
►Many thought Sandoval wouldn't get to 70 percent. I did. I said 73 percent; he garnered almost 71 percent. I said Mark Hutchison would get 56 percent; he took 59 percent. Both of those are pretty good.
►I said the margin tax NOs would get to 64 percent; they almost got to 80. Wow.
►I said Rep. Joe Heck would get to 55 percent; he almost took 61 percent. I knew it would be a blowout. But 60-plus in a swing district? Incredible
►I said Steven Horsford would win even though the data clearly showed he could lose. He lost. I knew it would be close -- I said 2 points. I was close -- it was 3 points. The other way.
►I thought the Democrats would hold the Assembly, 22-20. They didn't come close. It's 25-17, GOP.
►I thought the appeals court and mining tax qestions would win. One for two. I picked Joe Lombardo for sheriff; he won. I thought those two beleaguered county commissioners -- Susan Brager and Mary Beth Scow -- would hold on. They did.
Bottom line: I saw red people. I just didn't see quite enough of them.
Not this pundit.
Here's the bottom line: I saw the wave coming long before anyone else. I had all the data. I could have justified a statewide sweep with that data. I almost did.
But I couldn't believe it would go that wide and deep, so I predicted a big wave, not a massive one. So:
►I foretold that the GOP would pick up two-thirds of the statewide offices (governor and lieutenant governor were pretty easy). But I thought established Democrats Ross Miller and Kate Marshall would survive. I underestimated just how low the Clark County turnout would be, how strongly Adam Laxalt would run in the high-turnout rurals and how robustly Barbara Cegavske would run in Clark. The wave lifted those two Republicans to victory, but Laxalt's rural work helped as did Cegavske's Clark base. I had both of those races being within a few points. I was right. But I was wrong on which side would win.
►Many thought Sandoval wouldn't get to 70 percent. I did. I said 73 percent; he garnered almost 71 percent. I said Mark Hutchison would get 56 percent; he took 59 percent. Both of those are pretty good.
►I said the margin tax NOs would get to 64 percent; they almost got to 80. Wow.
►I said Rep. Joe Heck would get to 55 percent; he almost took 61 percent. I knew it would be a blowout. But 60-plus in a swing district? Incredible
►I said Steven Horsford would win even though the data clearly showed he could lose. He lost. I knew it would be close -- I said 2 points. I was close -- it was 3 points. The other way.
►I thought the Democrats would hold the Assembly, 22-20. They didn't come close. It's 25-17, GOP.
►I thought the appeals court and mining tax qestions would win. One for two. I picked Joe Lombardo for sheriff; he won. I thought those two beleaguered county commissioners -- Susan Brager and Mary Beth Scow -- would hold on. They did.
Bottom line: I saw red people. I just didn't see quite enough of them.
(Image from doroteos2.com.)
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