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Dean Heller would win by 1 percentage point. The president would win Nevada again. Steven Horsford would defy the polls.
"Genius" is a word that is thrown around too easily these days....
In case you missed my predictions, they are here. My only real failing: I believed in the Democratic machine, but didn't realize the potency it would have down the ticket.
The scorecard:
President: I said 50-46. It was 52-46. That's pretty close and certainly within the margin of error.
U.S. Senate: I said 49-...
I wonder, as she was riding in a gondola down the Grand Canal four years ago, perhaps gazing up at her luxury (but discounted) room, if Rep. Shelley Berkley ever thought: “This might be a problem.”
I doubt it.
But that congressional trip, which she led, with that ill-fated Venezia sojourn, may have cost her a chance at a U.S. Senate seat. Or not.
Berkley’s campaign clearly thought this ad, which falsely implied she had charged taxpayers $55,000 for an Italian vacation with her husband, hurt her...
I tend to shy away from the “look at what we learned” thumbsuckers the day after an election.
Overall themes often obscure underlying dynamics of individual races. The obvious often mashes the subtle. The results tell a story, but usually only part of it.
There is a lot to say about what happened in Nevada on Tuesday – today and later – but only a few things are crystal clear:
1. Registration matters
2. The Republican Party is irrelevant
3. The Hispanic vote here is a growing and...
No human has more chutzpah than Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and he showed it again this morning during a DC gaggle with reporters.
Here is his exchange with the Las Vegas Review-Journal's capital reporter, Steve Tetreault:
QUESTION: Senator Reid, how do you plan to reset your
relationship with Senator Heller now that the campaign is over? And
do you think the two of you can work together...
REID: Dean Heller and I have been friends for 25 years. In a
difficult election I had in 19...
A handy guide for Election Night:
Remember 70 percent of the vote will be known very early in the evening. Although we don't yet know what Election Day turnout will be like -- I estimate about 300,000 people will vote, about two-thirds in Clark County -- we will know some thing pretty early.
----Clark: When the first early/mail results are posted (we hope, before 8 PM) of the 57 percent who have voted in the South, see if President Obama has more than a 60,000-vote lead. (Democrats have a 71,...
One of the reasons the Republicans remain optimistic about Mitt Romney winning Nevada is that they claim they have banked high-propensity voters who will swamp the Democrats on Tuesday because the opposition is turning out its inveterates and will have little left for Election Day.
This always seemed odd to me for this reason: Wouldn't a lot of high-propensity voters cast ballots early because they are, you know, high-propensity voters?
Truth is the Republicans may be banking on theories that...
In a poll taken over the weekend, Public Policy Polling found President Obama (4 points) and Sen. Dean Heller (2 points) with small leads in Nevada.
That doesn't sound too far off, but let's take a deeper look at the poll to see what might be gleaned. Remember, this is a robopoll with self-ID by party and gender, so caveat emptor.
Some thoughts:
►The survey showed 51-47 for the president and 48-46 for Heller. The partisan breakdown -- 43-38, Democrats -- is sllightly less than the 7-point...
That's what site readers say. Largest number yet answered -- almost 1,000. Thanks for participating. A new poll is up!
The question: What will the president's margin of victory be in Clark County?
More than 10 points
39% (375 votes)
More than 15 points
34% (323 votes)
Single digits
26% (245 votes)
Total votes: 941
And I thought Reid-Angle was hard.
For two years, I have rested on my laurels after ignoring the public polls, trusting my reporting and gut and predicting Harry Reid would defeat Sharron Angle. Now it’s time to once again leap into the oracular breach, with an even more difficult U.S. Senate race (yes, it’s harder to call this one based on data I have seen) and a state Senate matrix that is as blurry as can be.
Before I go over my 2012 forecast, a reminder of my record, so you can judge for...
UPDATE: Statewide totals in. 700,000-plus have voted already. Doubt more than 1 million in all will vote. Democrats have a 48,000-vote lead. And the GOP only has a 1.1 percent statewide voter turnout advantage so far. The Republicans did a massive Tuesday effort for Romney to win.
A remarkable effort on the last day of early voting in Clark County by the Democrats pushed their lead above the 70,000 mark while another close day in Washoe left that county essentially even.
I will dive deeper into...